A Geographic Primitive Based Framework for Predicting Propagation of Natural Disasters


This research aims to achieve faster real time computation for predicting the failure time from natural disasters including cyclone induced flood and bushfire. High calculation efficiencies are reached through statistically summarizing simultaneous events spread in geography, into primitives allowing a distributed updating algorithm leading to parallel computing. Geographic primitives are to be identified through offline calculations concerning behaviors of environmental driving forces (e.g. water flow patterns for flood propagation, fuel distribution and wind for bushfire propagation, etc). Real time prediction would start with minimal available data and the prediction will be refined as more data are aggregated through broadband networks where parallel processing on the geographic primitives increases calculation efficiency.


  • A Model is developed for real-time prediction of cyclone induced flood propagation by focusing on:
  • - Making real-time prediction faster by parallel processing on identified stochastic systems (GPs)
    - Starting prediction with minimal available data and refining with any data that are subsequently available.
    - Allowing flexibility in data assimilation using a modularized approach
  • A Bayesian framework is built to generate a probabilistic prediction combining prior knowledge, including rainfall data statistics and topographical features, with any new precipitation, where the advantages of data oriented and heuristic modeling are combined.
  • A generalized framework will be developed which acts as a basis for calculating mean first passage times for stochastic propagation on non-homogeneous media with environmental bias.
  • The framework will be enhanced to calculate mean first passage time for a random spread. This will be tested on a bushfire scenario.


Vedio Clips:




  • Ms Isuri Wijesundera


  • Dr. Malka N. Halgamuge
  • Prof. Thas Nirmalathas
  • Dr. Thrishantha Nanayakkara

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Created: August 2013
Last Modified: August 2013
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