Wadud, Z; Lu Aye; Beer, T & Watson, HC 2006, 'Modeling Australian road transport emissions till 2025', Journal of Civil Engineering (IEB), The Institution of Engineers, Bangladesh, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 115-127.

Abstract

The contribution of the road transport sector to local air pollutants is significant in urban areas. Also, road transport has been a major source of greenhouse gases in OECD countries. In Australia, road transport was responsible for 12.9% of total national greenhouse gas emissions in 2000. This paper aims at determining the criteria air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from the road transport sector in Australia. Transport activities are projected from a bottom-up approach for a modeling period from 2000 to 2025. Instead of using standard drive cycle emission factors, attempts have been made to quantify real-world on-road emissions. Results have been compared with the findings from existing studies. It was found that the emission of local air pollutants would be decreasing because of the new vehicle emission standards to be adopted and by 2025. CO, HC, NOx and PM10 emissions would be significantly lower than the current level. Among the greenhouse gases, CH4 and N2O emissions are expected to decrease. The tailpipe CO2 emission would stabilize or increase at a very slow rate, because of the expected increase in fuel efficiency. The equivalent CO2 emission considering the global warming potential of CH4 and N2O is also predicted to stabilize.

Keywords: Road transport emission, green house gas, Australia.