Statistical Power in Retrieval Experimentation


William Webber
Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia.

Alistair Moffat
Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia.

Justin Zobel
NICTA Victoria Laboratory, Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia.


Status

Proc. 17th Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, Napa Valley, CA, October 2008, pages 571-580.

Abstract

The power of a statistical test specifies the sample size required to reliably detect a given true effect. In IR evaluation, the power corresponds to the number of topics that are likely to be sufficient to detect a certain degree of superiority of one system over another. To predict the power of a test, one must estimate the variability of the population being sampled from; here, of between-system score deltas. This paper demonstrates that basing such an estimation either on previous experience or on trial experiments leaves wide margins of error. Iteratively adding more topics to the test set until power is achieved is more efficient; however, we show that it leads to a bias in favour of finding both power and significance. A hybrid methodology is proposed, and the reporting requirements of the experimenter using this methodology are laid out. We also demonstrate that greater statistical power is achieved for the same relevance assessment effort by evaluating a large number of topics shallowly than a small number deeply.

Full paper

http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/1458082.1458158